SUI Price Risks 16% Drop if 200-day EMA Support Fails

• The falling SUI price is poised for a breakdown below the combined support of $3.25 and the 200-day exponential moving average.
• A flattish trendline in the 100- and 200-day EMA reflecting the mid-term sideways trend.
• The bearish swing in SUI futures open interest and total volume lock hints at waning investor confidence in the ecosystem, bolstering the risk of prolonged downfall.

SUI, the native cryptocurrency of the SUI ecosystem, shows a slight downtick of 0.18% during Tuesday’s U.S. market hours. The bearish momentum aligns with a broader market pullback as the Bitcoin price reverted just inches before the all-time high resistance of $123,236. However, the SUI faces an additional headwind, as DeFi metrics and derivative data suggest a risk of further correction. Will this altcoin break below $3.65? 

SUI Price Slips as Weak Volume and Falling TVL Signal Bearish Pressure

Over the past week, the SUI price showed a bullish rebound from $3.26 to a $4 swing high, registering a 22.46%. The buying followed a renewed recovery momentum in the broader crypto market, as Bitcoin hit a new high of $123,236.

However, the SUI price recovery was backed by a declining trend in trading volume, signaling a weak conviction from buyers. Thus, the coin price witnessed a short reversal of 9% to currently trade at $3.66. Simultaneously, the asset market cap plunged to $12.73 billion.

Despite the price volatility, the SUI futures open interest projected no major uptick and currently stands at $1.9 billion. Open interest reflects the total value of outstanding future contracts that have not yet been settled. This stagnant or declining trend in OI value shows traders are cautious about a new position or exiting their existing one amid market uncertainty.

Adding to the bearish outlook, total volume locked (TVL) on the SUI network records a bearish downtick to $2.07 billion. Declining TVL can point to fewer active users participating in DeFi protocols, reducing the available liquidity in the ecosystem.

If the trend continues, the coin price would struggle to maintain sustained momentum or push a prolonged correction in the near future.

The recent downturn in SUI price shows the formation of a new lower high in the four-hour chart, reflecting the sell-the-bounce sentiment in the market. The overhead supply could push this altcoin over 9.6% and challenge the combined support of $3.25 and the 200-day exponential moving average.

SUI Price Poised For Bearish Breakdown Within Channel Pattern

The daily chart analysis of SUI price shows a mid-term sideways trend resonating with two trendlines. Since August 2024, the coin price has received dynamic support from the ascending trendline, acting as a key accumulation zone for buyers. Meanwhile, the buyers face constant resistance at an overhead trendline intact since February 2025.

Amid the anticipated breakdown of the 200-day EMA, the coin price drove a bear cycle within the channel of two trendlines. If the breakdown closes a daily candle below, the sellers could push a 16% drop to retest the bottom trendline at $2.7.

Until the support trendline is intact, the SUI coin will hold its sideways trend and prevent a major correction.

If history repeats, the SUI price could recoup the bullish momentum at the bottom trendline for its next leap. 

On the contrary, a newly emerged downsloping trendline from the $4 is shaping the current correction in price. If the coin price manages to hold the 200-day EMA, the buyers could tease a breakout from the resistance trendline to accelerate bullish momentum for renewed recovery.